At the end of January Donald Trump announced his intention to publish a weekly list of “criminal actions committed by aliens”.
The order reads:
To better inform the public regarding the public safety threats associated with sanctuary jurisdictions, the Secretary shall utilize the Declined Detainer Outcome Report or its equivalent and, on a weekly basis, make public a comprehensive list of criminal actions committed by aliens and any jurisdiction that ignored or otherwise failed to honour any detainers with respect to such aliens.
Trump’s campaign hinged on two prerequisite dangers: the threat of foreign terrorism, and the threat of undocumented migrants in the country. His fiery rhetoric continues to warn of the dangers of immigration and the apparent damage that migrants are causing to the US.
However a report published in January by Markus Gehrsitz and Martin Ungerer of the Centre for European Economic Research used Germany as a case study to prove that immigrants did not cause a spike in crime rates.
More than one million refugees entered Germany in 2015 – making it one of the largest recipients of refugees in the western world. The US, in comparison received a mere 10 per cent of its fair share.
The researchers looked at administrative records of 16 German states on the assignment of refugees to 402 counties between 2014 and 2015. There were, on average 1,260 refugees per 100,000 inhabitants for each county.
The conclusion? Immigrants do not cause an increase in crime rates.
Immigrants did not, on the whole, impact on crime rates in Germany.
The only exception the report found was:
We find very small increases in crime in particular with respect to drug offenses and fare-dodging
However, the report admits that this may be due to a higher police presence in the counties with larger refugee numbers. Hence, crime in these areas is more likely to be reported.
Given the data available for non-terrorism related crime and given the time period for which said data were available, there is little evidence for large increases in crime in the immediate aftermath of refugee inflows.
This all doesn't bode well for Trump's weekly lists of immigrant crime.