Coronavirus: 'Very likely' some of 10,000 'unexplained' care home deaths were due to Covid-19, deputy chief medical officer says

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It is “very likely” that some of the 10,000 “unexplained” additional deaths in care homes in April were due to coronavirus, deputy chief medical officer Jenny Harries has said.

Dr Harries’ comment raises the prospect that the true death toll of the outbreak in the UK could be significantly higher than the official figure of 33,186.

Labour leader Keir Starmer today challenged Boris Johnson over the 26,000 fatalities in care homes recorded by the Office for National Statistics last month - a “staggering” three times the normal rate for April, of whom only 8,000 are officially recorded as Covid-19 deaths.

Mr Johnson acknowledged that the statistics indicated a “tragedy that has been taking place in care homes” but gave no explanation of the disparity between the ONS and government figures.

But speaking later at the daily Downing Street coronavirus briefing, Dr Harries said that the 8,000 figure covered only people who had been confirmed by laboratory tests as having contracted coronavirus.

In the case of a further 10,000 “additional” deaths no test for Covid had taken place, she said. And she made clear that there are also likely to have been coronavirus deaths elsewhere in the community which went unrecorded because of the lack of a test.

“Some of them (the 10,000) may well have had Covid,” she said. “Some of them may have had other issues. That’s why we look at the whole excess mortality.

“It is very likely that some of these individuals had Covid and that may apply to other parts of the population as well. The important thing is whether they had appropriate care and treatment.”

Dr Harries backed Mr Johnson in saying that the true death toll from coronavirus, allowing international comparisons to be made, will not be known until the total excess mortality over the period of the outbreak is calculated.

Although she said she was “delighted” to discuss data on the impact of the disease, Dr Harries said a fair comparison must include information on the total number of additional deaths above what would be expected for the time of year, weighted to take into account varying age profiles in different countries.

“The pandemic is still moving at different times through different countries, so the time to do this on an international scale will be to look back, probably in 12 months hence still, and then do the comparison,” she said.

“It is always good to keep looking on the way and to see if we can learn, and we do that, but that’s the time to do it and it will be all-cause mortality.”

Challenging Mr Johnson over care home death rates at prime minister’s questions in the House of Commons, Sir Keir said: “The ONS records the average number of deaths in care homes each month. For the last five years the average for April has been just over 8,000.

“This year the number of deaths in care homes for April was a staggering 26,000 – that’s three times the average – 18,000 additional deaths this April.

“Using the Government’s figures only 8,000 are recorded as Covid deaths, that leaves 10,000 additional and unexplained care home deaths this April.

“Now I know the Government must have looked into this so can the Prime Minister give us the Government’s views on these unexplained deaths?”

Mr Johnson responded: “The Office of National Statistics is responsible for producing the data that they have, the government had also produced data which not only shows that there has been, as I said, a terrible epidemic in care homes but since the care homes action plan began we are seeing an appreciable and substantial reduction, not just in the number of outbreaks but also in the number of deaths.”