We asked 10 polling companies who will win the election

John Rentoul@JohnRentoul
Sunday 19 April 2015 10:00
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The Independent on Sunday asked the bosses of the 10 top polling companies for their predictions.

The consensus has moved further, and slightly, in Labour’s favour since last week, so that the race is in effect a tie.

We combined their predictions, where they made them, to project the House of Commons that will be elected on 7 May, excluding Northern Ireland: Conservative 276 seats (-1 from last week), Labour 275 (+1), Scottish National Party 45, Liberal Democrat 26, Ukip 5, Plaid Cymru 3, Green 1, Respect 1 (all unchanged).

That would mean a hung parliament with a Labour minority government.

Martin Boon ICM

We caused something of a kerfuffle this week with a Tory six-pointer. Looking back over the last four campaigns, on each occasion the incumbent government just failed to reach the vote share achieved on our first campaign poll. On that basis alone I’ll go for 36 per cent for the Tories and 34 per cent for Labour.

James Endersby Opinium

Our poll gives the Tories a four-point lead. It was carried out either side of Thursday’s TV debate so we haven’t seen the expected dent in Tory fortunes yet. The pattern we’ve seen for a while now appears to be unaffected by week-to-week events. If our figures hold fast, the Lib Dems would still be kingmakers as Tories plus DUP wouldn’t equal 326 seats, but neither would SNP plus Labour. Both sides would need the Lib Dems to eke out a majority.

Michelle Harrison TNS

The Conservatives and Labour have barely moved. The most notable event? The SNP hitting 52 per cent on the latest TNS Scotland poll. A key theme for this election is the impact of ‘edge’ politics on the centre.

Andrew Hawkins ComRes

I am thinking Labour will be the largest party. Cameron is making no headway and refusing the debate was a misjudgement. Even if the Conservatives are the largest party I cannot see how they can win enough seats to form a viable alternative to an Ed-led, three-way arrangement with the Lib Dems and SNP.

Nick Moon GfK

I agree with Rick [Nye, who said “no change” last week]. Most campaigns don’t really see much change.

(Tories largest party but Labour minority government.)

Rick Nye, Populus

Still no change.

(Tories win most seats and most votes.)

Ben Page Ipsos MORI

Labour had the better week, and Ed Miliband is improving his personal ratings from a low base, but neither of the two main parties is getting a majority in these numbers.

Damian Lyons Lowe Survation

On the balance of Thursday’s debate – I’m staying unchanged.

(Labour biggest party in hung parliament.)

Joe Twyman YouGov

Ed Miliband’s performance at the challengers’ debate could boost his ratings, and may result in a short-term boost for his party’s fortune, but I think it unlikely to change the overall picture longer term.

Michael Ashcroft Lord Ashcroft Polls

My polls are snapshots not predictions.

More: David Cameron decided it would be a good idea to tweet about the debate he avoided - big mistake

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