The Independent on Sunday asked the bosses of the 10 top polling companies for their predictions.
The consensus has moved further, and slightly, in Labour’s favour since last week, so that the race is in effect a tie.
We combined their predictions, where they made them, to project the House of Commons that will be elected on 7 May, excluding Northern Ireland: Conservative 276 seats (-1 from last week), Labour 275 (+1), Scottish National Party 45, Liberal Democrat 26, Ukip 5, Plaid Cymru 3, Green 1, Respect 1 (all unchanged).
That would mean a hung parliament with a Labour minority government.
Martin Boon ICM
We caused something of a kerfuffle this week with a Tory six-pointer. Looking back over the last four campaigns, on each occasion the incumbent government just failed to reach the vote share achieved on our first campaign poll. On that basis alone I’ll go for 36 per cent for the Tories and 34 per cent for Labour.