In the 2012 US presidential election, FiveThirtyEight editor Nate Silver correctly predicted the winner of all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
His latest now-cast is slightly worrying, following Trump's boost in the polls after the Republican convention.
Silver's prediction, a snapshot based on who would win the election today, currently has Trump ahead by ten points.
This model weights recent polls more heavily and aggressively, while the model that successfully predicted the previous election, polls-plus, still has Clinton ahead.
This model combines polls with an economic index and starts by assuming that likely voter polls are better for Republicans, and it also adjusts for a convention bounce.
In Silver's own words:
And panic we definitely will.Picture: Mark Wallheiser/Getty Images