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Bridie Pearson-Jones
May 08, 2017
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Historically, class is what was seen as a deciding factor on who you voted for. The working classes voted Labour and the middle classes voted Tory.
Increasingly however, class divides are mattering less and less, and age is the biggest factor showing demographic divides in the country.
When it comes to last year's vote to leave the EU - those under 49 overwhelming voted remain, and those 50 and over voted leave.
Young people are more left wing - in fact, recent analysis by YouGov shows that for every ten years older a person is, the likelihood they vote Conservative increases by 8 points and the likelihood they vote labour decreases by 6 points
Unfortunately for Labour, young people are the least likely to vote.
In 2015, 43 per cent of 18-25 year olds voted Labour, 55 per cent of those registered in the 2017 General Election intend to vote Labour and of those polled by 69 per cent said they “like” or “strongly like” Jeremy Corbyn, bucking the national trend.
According to a tweet by Newcastle University senior lecturer in applied linguistics, Alan Firth, if 30 per cent more young people vote (that would make turnout 56% - still 10 percentage points below the national average) - Labour would beat the Tories on June 8th.
We're not entirely sure of the maths Alan used to get these figures - but it is clear that the higher turnout of young people, the better Labour will do.
There are approximately 6,762.422 18-25 year olds living in the UK, according to the ONS. If voter turnout increased by 30 per cent from 2015 that would mean 56% would turn out to vote, or 3,786,956. If 55 per cent of these voted for Labour that would lead to just over 2 million more votes for Corbyn (2,082,285).
Labour are solidly ahead of the Conservatives with the under 40 demographic and students
A recentmega-poll of nearly 13,000 voters by YouGov conducted found Jeremy Corbyn would be heading to Downing Street were the election decided by 18-40 year olds.
For women under 40, Labour is particularly popular, with Corbyn taking a 15-point lead over May.
If only students voted, Labour would have an overwhelming majority, 55% of the vote would give them 533 seats compared to the Conservatives 43 (with only 18% of the vote).
The latest polls, put Conservatives on around 47% of the vote, which would give them a majority of about 122.
Both Labour and Conservatives are encouraging young people to get engaged in politics, offering free tours of the Houses of Parliament for young voters and encouraging young people to register to vote.
Correction: This article originally misidentified Alan Firth as a writer for the Guardian. 14.05.2017
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