Why it really matters that Joe Biden is beating Trump in this one state
Getty/iStock/indy100

While he would likely never acknowledge it, Donald Trump's poll numbers are plummeting less than 100 days away from the election.

While many are dubious of presidential polling considering the certainty of polls that Hilary Clinton would win in 2016, the fact that Joe Biden is leading Trump by a wide margin in Florida is definitely something to keep an eye on.

A Quinnipiac University poll released last week showed presidential hopeful Joe Biden has a 51 per cent to 38 per cent lead over Donald Trump in the "Sunshine State".

In another poll, conducted by St. Pete Polls for FloridaPolitics.com and AARP Florida, Biden led Trump in Florida by 6 points, receiving 50.4 per cent of votes compared with Trump's 44.4 per cent. This poll also found Biden leading Trump across all gender and age demographics in the battleground state, except for voters over 70.

Here are all the reasons why this means something for the Biden campaign:

1. No Republican has won the presidency without Florida since Calvin Coolidge in 1924

Because of the way the electoral college works, certain states are way more important than others. Florida, along with New York, is the joint third biggest state in the electoral college, with 29 electors, after California (55) and Texas (38).

The president, whose official address is in Palm Beach, seems to know he needs to fight to stay in the race.

Trump’s campaign has reserved more in television advertising in Florida than in any other state.

2. Florida tends to be conservative than the rest of the nation.

The last time the state voted more Democratic than the nation as a whole in a presidential election was 1976.

If Biden clinches Florida, it shows the country is read for a change.

3. Biden's lead in the state provides him with 'a lot of backup options, given that it's worth 29 electoral votes'.

According to an analysis of recent Florida polls by CNN's Harry Enten, “if Biden adds the 29 electoral votes from Florida to the states Clinton took in 2016, he gets 261 electoral votes. Biden would need just nine electoral votes more to get an electoral college majority,” he said.

Again, the Trump campaign and the Republican National Committee appear to be highly aware of how crucial of winning the state is to his reelection: they have more than 180 staffers on the ground in every county of the state, according to The Hill.

The campaign also said it has made 10.4 million Florida voter contacts during the cycle, a substantial increase from the 1.5 million voter contacts it made by November 2016.

And while Florida’s erupting coronavirus outbreak seems like a microcosm of the larger issues the president and the nation are facing, the Trump campaign and American voters are definitely not easily understood.

Who knows what the next 100 days will bring?

Please log in or register to upvote this article
The Conversation (0)