Labour's net zero plan to counter Tory mini-budget ahead of party conference
A new poll has been published which predicts a comfortable 56-seat majority for Labour at the next general election – and it could be bad news for a number of prominent Tory MPs.
Sir Keir Starmer could be set for a comprehensive win against Liz Truss if the numbers come to fruition, according to findings from Savanta ComRes.
The poll was released on the first day of the Labour conference in Liverpool. More than 6,000 voters surveyed put Labour a clear 12 points ahead of the Conservatives, on 45 per cent, with Liz Truss’s party on 33 per cent.
The research suggests that 146 Conservative MPs could lose their seats at the next election.
The Savanta analysis predicts that among them are prominent Tories including Johnson, whose Uxbridge and South Ruislip is among the seats looking likely to fall to Labour.
Some of the Tory MPs who could lose their seats including Johnson, Rees-Mogg and MordauntGetty Images
According to political journalist Adam Bienkov, the list of at-risk seats also include those currently held by Jacob Rees-Mogg, Iain Duncan Smith, Penny Mordaunt, Steve Baker, Grant Shapps, Andrea Leadsom, Andrea Jenkyns and Dominic Raab.
The survey was completed before Friday’s mini-Budget, with the implications of Kwasi Kwarteng’s announcement to borrow £45bn to fund tax cuts largely benefiting the rich and businesses yet to show in the research.
\u201cIf this poll was repeated at a general election Labour would win a 182 seat majority.\n\nConservative MPs losing their seats would include Boris Johnson, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Iain Duncan Smith, Penny Mordaunt, Steve Baker, Grant Shapps, Andrea Leadsom, Andrea Jenkyns and Dominic Raab.\u201d
Savanta’s political research director Chris Hopkins said: “This MRP model highlights both the potential and the precarious nature of Labour’s polling lead at the moment.
“While this model gives Labour a 56-seat majority with a 12 point lead over the Conservatives, a one-point swing the other way could reduce that majority considerably, and any bigger swing back towards Liz Truss’s party could deprive Labour of a majority at all, even if their national vote share trumps the Conservative figure by eight to nine points.
Sir Keir Starmer is predicted to record a comfortable majorityIan Forsyth/Getty Images
“Labour needs to hope that any Truss bounce is short-lived, and to capitalise on an economic outlook that rarely rewards governing parties at the ballot box.
“If Labour can consistently generate double-digit poll leads over the government, Keir Starmer will be well on course for Downing Street, and therefore this conference feels like a crucial moment in his leadership."
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