Humanity set to 'reach its peak and shrink' faster than scientists ever believed | indy100

What If Humanity Became an Interstellar Society?

Underknown / VideoElephant

Projections signal that the world’s population growth may slow down and reverse earlier than many expect.

While the United Nations forecasts a rise to approximately 8.5 billion people by 2030 and nearly 9.7 billion by 2050, the numbers are set to peak around 10.4 billion during the 2080s. After that, a gradual decline is predicted to begin around the turn of the century in 2100.

However, a study published in The Lancet, funded by the Gates Foundation, suggests these estimates might actually be too optimistic.

With the global population passing 8 billion last year, the world is rapidly approaching its population peak. At the same time, we’re edging closer to a technological tipping point — where artificial intelligence surpasses human control and transforms society in unprecedented ways.

For some context, the UN revealed back in 2022 that "two-thirds of the global population lives in a country or area where lifetime fertility is below 2.1 births per woman, roughly the level required for zero growth in the long run, for a population with low mortality."

"The populations of 61 countries or areas are projected to decrease by 1 per cent or more between 2022 and 2050, owing to sustained low levels of fertility and, in some cases, elevated rates of emigration," it continued.

As Jon Wilmoth, director of the population division at the U.N.’s Department of Economic and Social Affairs, explained at the time: "The cumulative effect of lower fertility, if maintained over several decades, could be a more substantial deceleration of global population growth in the second half of the century."

The University of Washington study projects the global population will peak mid-century and shrink to around 8.8 billion by 2100.

That figure could dip even lower if AI ends up calling the shots — and who’s to say how many humans our future robot overlords will actually keep around...

You should also read...

How to join the indy100's free WhatsApp channel

Sign up for our free Indy100 weekly newsletter

Have your say in our news democracy. Click the upvote icon at the top of the page to help raise this article through the indy100 rankings.