Brexit will not happen this month and could be delayed until next year, says political expert Sir John Curtice

Brexit will not happen this month and could be delayed until next year, says political expert Sir John Curtice

Remember Sir John Curtice? Of course you do. He's the political scientist who has some sort of crystal ball that can successfully predict every election.

He's the man that successfully predicted both the EU referendum and the 2017 general election, and now he's back to announce when he thinks the UK will actually leave the EU - and we're afraid it's bad news for all you March 29 stans.

Speaking on LBC Radio on Wednesday morning, the day after Theresa May's deal was emphatically rejected by the Commons, he told Nick Ferrari that he believes that the UK won't leave the EU by the end of this month and could remain until 2020.

There isn't a vote in this parliament for going without a deal. If this government were going to attempt to get out of the European Union without a deal, it would lose a vote of no confidence. I have been of the opinion for a considerable amount of time that we are not leaving on 29 March.

Even if Mrs May comes back to the House of Commons again next week and somehow manages to get it through, we tend to forget she has to get the legislation to get the deal through not just the House of Commons, but the House of Lords, which is not exactly leave-inclined.

He added that the UK could leave on May 22 or later, which would give Nigel Farage the chance to fight for the European elections but conceded that second thoughts about Brexit could creep in if there is a second referendum or a general election

So, the honest truth is that we're not leaving on 29th March. The question now is whether we're leaving by 22nd May, or whether we're going to go for a much longer extension and Nigel Farage will get his chance to fight the European elections.

It may well be well into 2020 before there is a prospect of us leaving. In the meantime, either through a general election or an EU referendum, we may or may not have had second thoughts.

Curtice was also asked which was more likely, a second referendum or a general election, which he concluded a general election is the most likely scenario but only if 'the government collapses', which at this stage is perfectly possible.


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