How Scottish Independence could change the next election result

Labour is on course to win the 2015 general election - but only because of its strong support in Scotland.

The latest “poll of polls” for the Independent suggests that Ed Miliband will win an overall majority of 32 next May. But if Scotland votes yes to independence and its MPs are excluded, there would be a hung parliament, with Labour three seats short of a majority.

“Scotland is potentially critical to Labour’s ability to win an overall majority,” said John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, who compiled the poll of polls.

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