Why Mexico's World Cup games are in serious jeopardy

Gunfire and explosions erupted just metres from Hugo Alejandro Pérez’s home in Guadalajara, a city poised to host FIFA World Cup matches, solidifying his deep scepticism about its capacity to stage the global sporting event.

For the 53-year-old restaurant owner, the incident only amplified existing doubts about Guadalajara’s readiness. He pointed to a government struggling with basic services, such as water provision to his home, alongside persistent cartel violence in the wider Jalisco state. The recent surge in bloodshed, triggered by the Mexican military’s killing of the nation’s most powerful cartel boss, further cemented his concerns.

"I don’t think they should host the World Cup here," Mr Pérez said. "We have so many problems, and they want to invest in the World Cup? With all the violence, it’s not a good idea." His concerns were echoed by other residents on Tuesday, who openly questioned Guadalajara's suitability as a host city for the upcoming football tournament.

Despite these local anxieties, the Mexican government has vowed that the international event — co-hosted by Mexico, the United States, and Canada — will proceed unaffected. President Claudia Sheinbaum offered "every guarantee" that World Cup matches would be held in Jalisco, adding there was "no risk" for fans. Jalisco Governor Jesús Pablo Lemus confirmed he had spoken with local FIFA officials, who have "absolutely no intention of removing any venues from Mexico. The three venues remain completely unchanged."

Charred vehicles sit in a parking lot outside a shopping mall in GuadalajaraAP

However, international bodies are watching closely. The Portuguese football federation stated it was "closely monitoring the delicate situation" in Mexico, ahead of its national team’s friendly match against Mexico on 28 March at Mexico City’s newly renovated Azteca Stadium, which is scheduled to host the opening World Cup match on 11 June.

Jalisco, in western Mexico, has long been under scrutiny. The state has been plagued by some of the starkest examples of cartel violence in recent years, including the discovery of a cartel killing site at a ranch last March and a crisis of disappearances.

Guadalajara, the state capital, serves as the central hub for the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG). Its leader, Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as "El Mencho," was killed on Sunday during a military capture attempt. The operation and subsequent waves of violence resulted in 70 deaths. Cartel gunmen set fire to cars to block streets across several states, notably Jalisco, and engaged in firefights with Mexican forces into Monday, even as the government asserted the conflict was under control.

The death of Oseguera Cervantes occurred as Mexico’s government intensified its offensive against cartels, aiming to meet demands by US President Donald Trump to crack down on criminal groups. The CJNG is recognised as one of Mexico’s fastest-growing criminal networks. The White House confirmed that the US provided intelligence support for the capture, commending Mexico’s army. On Tuesday night, US President Donald Trump briefly referenced the operation during his State of the Union address, stating: "We’ve also taken down one of the most sinister cartel kingpins of all. You saw that yesterday."

Police officers stand guard in downtown GuadalajaraAP

Mr Pérez, the restaurant owner, acknowledged President Sheinbaum’s efforts against cartels, noting that her administration has taken cartel violence more seriously than previous governments. However, he criticised local authorities in Jalisco for failing to adequately protect civilians.

A significant concern for many is that "El Mencho’s" death could paradoxically lead to increased violence. The strategy of killing cartel leaders, known as the "kingpin strategy," has been criticised by President Sheinbaum herself, as it can often ignite internal conflicts between cartel factions and prompt rival groups to seize territory.

Vanda Felbab-Brown, an academic at the Brookings Institution, suggested that while widespread acts of "revenge" by the cartel might be unlikely, the future remains uncertain, particularly given the recent elimination of leading figures in both the CJNG and the Sinaloa Cartel. "If there is no clear line of succession (in CJNG), we might see a lot of fighting within the cartel, its breakup, and there are a lot of scenarios," she explained.

Recalling Sunday’s events, Mr Pérez described how firefights between the cartel and soldiers, and gunmen burning a car just feet from his house, forced him to shelter people from the street. The fighting lasted an hour. He now questions the purpose of hosting the games, doubting that any economic benefits will reach businesses in working-class neighbourhoods like his, despite their proximity to the stadium. Similar tensions have simmered in Mexico City.

The World Cup is projected to generate a $3 billion economic boost for Mexico, according to the Mexican Football Federation. Yet, Mr Pérez remains unconvinced. "It doesn't help us residents at all, honestly. They should move it to Monterrey or Mexico City. But right now here, we're not convinced," he said. "Things aren't in good enough shape for foreigners to be coming to Jalisco for an event like this."

The recent violence prompted some foreign tourists trapped in Puerto Vallarta to issue warnings on social media, with several stating they would not return.

A body lies beside a bullet-riddled vehicle in Tapalpa, MexicoAP

Despite the unrest, Guadalajara appeared to be returning to its normal rhythm on Tuesday. Many businesses reopened after two days, and streets were once again bustling with traffic. Workers were seen repairing the exterior of the World Cup stadium, while cyclists and families with children enjoyed nearby parks.

Heavily armed police officers and National Guard members patrolled the city, a visible sign for some that the government had regained control. Juan Carlos Pila, a 55-year-old taxi driver, dismissed reports of violence as exaggerated by social media and local news outlets. "People should come, man. Everyone is welcome," he urged.

Others, like Maria Dolores Aguirre, who runs a small corner shop in the tourist town of Tapalpa – where "El Mencho" was killed – simply hoped for the best. Her family business, established over 50 years ago, relies on tourist traffic. She fears the bloodshed will severely impact her livelihood and alter the character of towns like hers. "It’s going to affect us. It’s collateral damage," Ms Aguirre said. "The government is going to have to have a lot of security. … The entire world just saw what happened and, of course, people are going to think twice about coming."