How to correctly predict the Oscars, according to research

The 91st Academy Awards will take place on Sunday evening with all the stars of Hollywood descending on the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles.

If you are an avid film watcher then you will be all too familiar with the usual tropes and hype that surrounds the event and to be honest it's all very predictable.

However, this year's awards season has been a bit more unpredictable as major gongs have been shared between the likes of Roma, Bohemian Rhapsody and The Favourite.

Outsiders like Green Book, BlacKkKlansmann and Vice have also been picking up gongs whilst fan favourites like Black Panther and A Star is Born remain lurking in the shadows ready to spring an upset.

'If only there was a way to figure out what will take home the much heralded Best Picture award' you bellow. Well, allow us to introduce you to a little formula based on data that should indicate what will win.

Research from Time Magazine shows that if you look back at the last 18 years of Oscar winners and nominees for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Editing as well as one the top Directors' Guild of America Awards such as 'Outstanding Directing in a Feature Film' a pattern emerges.

If a film wins either best director or best editing and wins or is nominated for a DGA award then it is more than likely to walk away with the big prize at the end of the night.

Take a look at our handy spreadsheet below and see for yourself.

The research from Time, which was conducted through a computer program gave Roma a 45 per cent chance of winning on Sunday night.

Trailing just behind it were The Favourite, Vice and BlacKkKlansman which are all tied on 11.2 per cent. Following those are Bohemian Rhapsody and Green Book on 1.7 per cent each and A Star is Born and Black Panther as rank outsiders on 0.2 per cent.

This formula isn't completely concrete as movies like Gladiator, 12 Years a Slave, Spotlight and Moonlight have failed to win any of the other awards but still won Best Picture.

Yet, this formula does prove to be successful in virtually every other year since 2000. Even films like Argo and Birdman which weren't even nominated for some of the awards still won or was nominated for another award and eventually won Best Picture.

So, given that Roma won the DGA award and has been nominated for the other two Oscars it should win Best Picture, at least that's what director Alfonso Cuaron will be hoping.

That being said the Academy has been known to throw a curveball every now and again so don't go betting your house on this just yet.

HT Time

More: Thousands are protesting Kobe Bryant’s Oscar