Why Orban's surprise defeat could spell disaster for Trump

The unexpected electoral defeat of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has sent ripples across the globe, particularly resonating in the United States where his brand of populist nationalism found a strong admirer in Donald Trump. Orbán, a figurehead for the global right due to his stringent anti-immigrant policies, has long been embraced by Trump and many US conservatives, who saw parallels in his approach to governance.

Trump had openly backed Orbán’s re-election campaign, even dispatching Vice President JD Vance to Budapest just last week amidst the ongoing conflict in Iran, to rally support for the incumbent leader. The Hungarian leader’s strategy of leveraging state power to influence media, the judiciary, and the electoral system to maintain his party’s 16-year grip on power bore striking resemblances to aspects of Trump’s own political agenda.

Orbán’s loss serves as a stark reminder of how the conflict in Iran has curtailed Trump’s capacity to bolster allied politicians abroad. It also underscores the inherent limitations leaders face in attempting to manipulate voting outcomes in an era marked by widespread public dissatisfaction with incumbents across the political spectrum. Steven Levitsky, a politics professor at Harvard and co-author of "How Democracies Die," observed: "Oppositions can win despite a tilted playing field. Democracies are facing many challenges in many parts of the world, but so are autocracies."

The immediate global implications of Orbán’s defeat are significant. He was widely considered the European leader closest to Russian President Vladimir Putin and had consistently obstructed European Union aid to Ukraine, which continues to defend itself following Russia's 2022 invasion.

President Donald Trump, left, greets Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban at the White House AP Photo/John McDonnell

News of his fall was met with celebration on Sunday by both Democrats and Republicans in the US, some of whom voiced criticism of their own administration’s overt support for the Hungarian leader. Republican Representative Don Bacon of Nebraska commented on social media platform X: "Don’t fiddle-paddle in other democracies’ elections." Similarly, Republican Senator Roger Wicker of Mississippi posted: "The freedom-loving people of Hungary have voted decisively in favor of democracy and the rule of law."

Matt Schlapp, chairman of the American Conservative Union, represents a segment of the American right that championed Orbán. His organisation, the Conservative Political Action Conference, held its inaugural European session in Budapest and has since made Hungary a regular destination. Orbán himself was a prominent speaker at the group's conference in Dallas in 2022. Schlapp offered a straightforward explanation for Orbán’s electoral setback: "Eventually, democracies just want change. In democracies, you don't have kings, and the people in the end speak." He added: "The people of Hungary were saying, 'We're having a difficult time with inflation, the economy and the war. Let's try the new guy,'" acknowledging that while he supports Trump’s stance on the Iran conflict, the resulting turmoil, particularly in European energy markets, ultimately harmed Orbán’s chances.

The timing of Vice President Vance’s visit to Hungary also drew international condemnation. Diana Sosoaca, a far-right Member of the European Parliament from Romania, labelled it "a big mistake" given the widespread public revulsion towards the Iran conflict across the continent. Speaking in an interview posted by the Kremlin-controlled network RT, she questioned: "You invite a representative of the United States of America, who created the big disorder in this world? It was the biggest mistake he could do before the elections."

Orbán’s political trajectory saw him emerge as an anti-communist activist in his youth, first elected prime minister in 1998. After being voted out in 2002, he shifted further to the right. Upon his return to office in 2010, Orbán and his Fidesz party systematically implemented a legal framework designed to consolidate authority, a strategy developed during his time out of power. He championed what he termed "illiberal democracy," erecting a barrier on Hungary's southern border to deter migrants from Africa and Asia travelling north through Europe. His administration and party also suppressed LGBTQ+ rights, curtailed press freedom, and undermined judicial independence.

Orbán solidified his power base when Fidesz secured enough parliamentary seats during the 2010 global recession to rewrite the country's constitution. They restructured the judiciary to channel appointments to the bench through party loyalists, redrew legislative districts to significantly hinder Fidesz members from losing elections, and facilitated the sale of Hungary's media companies to tycoons aligned with Orbán. Consequently, the European Union has formally designated Hungary an "electoral autocracy."

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban waves has he walks onto stage to speak at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Dallas, Thursday, Aug. 4, 2022. AP Photo/LM Otero,File

While Orbán’s supporters have dismissed suggestions that he is an enemy of democracy, and he swiftly conceded his loss on Sunday, Democrats in the US have expressed concern that Trump might attempt to use his executive powers to influence upcoming elections, mirroring his efforts to overturn Democrat Joe Biden's victory in the 2020 presidential election. Ian Bassin of Protect Democracy, a non-partisan group dedicated to combating authoritarianism, stated: "Most importantly for American voters, even a guy who rigs the system can be defeated when the people unite and turn out against him."

Democratic Representative Ro Khanna of California seized the opportunity to challenge Vice President Vance, posting on X: "Your ally Orban conceded. In 2028, will you @JDVance follow suit if you lose?" However, Professor Levitsky cautioned against taking too much comfort from Orbán’s defeat, noting that in some respects, Trump’s actions have been more oppressive. He cited Trump’s use of the Justice Department to investigate political opponents and the shooting deaths of protesters by immigration officers – measures that Orbán’s government never took. Yet, Senator Chris Van Hollen, a Maryland Democrat, drew parallels between the political projects of Trump and Orbán, as well as the potential electoral fates of their respective parties. "He was essentially doing what Donald Trump is trying to do here in the United States," Van Hollen remarked of Orbán. "My read of the election is that the people of Hungary rejected that, just like people in the United States are rejecting that here at home."

Donald Trump made no public comments on Sunday regarding the election results in Hungary.