Philosopher wins 25-year-old bet with neuroscientists about consciousness

When people bet, most of the time it’s on sports, or at the casino – but very few bet on things as highbrow or intellectual as the notion of human consciousness.

However, that’s exactly the situation neuroscientist Christof Koch and philosopher David Chalmers found themselves in more than 25 years ago.

Back then, the pair made a bet after the Association for the Scientific Study of Consciousness (ASSC). Incredibly, it’s finally been settled a quarter of a century later.

What was the nature of the bet? Well, Koch suggested at the time that within 25 years, experts would discover a signature of consciousness in the brain [via IFLScience].

Koch bet a case of fine wine, hopeful that in future scientists would find clear identifiers.

Over the years, he worked with Francis Crick – a theoretical molecular biologist whose work was crucial to the structure of DNA being discovered. They researched the region of the brain known as the claustrum.

There were some encouraging signs that arose after stimulating the claustrum of an epileptic patient.

Researchers wrote in a study: "Stimulation of the claustral electrode reproducibly resulted in a complete arrest of volitional behavior, unresponsiveness, and amnesia without negative motor symptoms or mere aphasia.”

In the years that passed, two theories emerged which had the best chance of returning significant results. These are known as the integrated information theory (IIT), which suggests that potential identifiers could be found in the posterior cortex, and global network workspace theory (GNWT), which suggests that indicators could be found in the prefrontal cortex.

Unfortunately for Koch, though, despite some encouraging signs, no indicators have been discovered – and he’s down a case of wine after losing the bet in 2023.

This played out on stage at the conference of the Association for the Scientific Study of Consciousness at N.Y.U, where the pair appeared together.

Stating that “clear” proof had not been found, Chalmers said: “It’s clear that things are not clear.”

Koch then walked off stage before returning with a case of wine, much to the amusement of the audience.

The bet wasn’t quite finished there, either. Koch doubled down on his bet and said that in another 25 years, scientists will have found the signature of consciousness in the brain – which Chalmers took.

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