Russian bombing leaves Ukraine’s Kharkiv in ruins
Independent

War has been waging in Ukraine for more than three weeks now.

The latest news is that Ukraine has rejected a Russian demand for Mariupol to surrender and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky has said that he is“ready for negotiations” with Russian president Vladimir Putin. "We have to use any format, any chance in order to have a possibility of negotiating," he said.

The UN has said ten million people have fled their homes and at least 902 civilians have been killed and 1,459 injured in Ukraine.

As the devastation continues, experts and analysts have been thinking about how the war could end.

Sign up to our free Indy100 weekly newsletter

So, here's how Ukraine could win the war:

Kyiv

Ukraine could win the war if they are able to maintain its capital city, experts have said.

For Zelensky, holding on to Kyiv, "would be presented as something of a victory, because the general consensus before the war was that the Russian campaign would be quick," said Katie Laatikainen, political science professor at Adelphi University (NY).

"Control over Kyiv is an important symbol for both sides," added Peter Rutland, professor of Russian, East European and Eurasian Studies at Wesleyan University in Connecticut."

However, regardless of the city, if Russia controls a lot of other territory, that would be bad for Ukraine.

"Whether the capital falls or not, the problem for Zelensky remains that large parts of Ukraine will be under Russian occupation," Rutland told Newsweek. Zelensky "will have to negotiate some sort of deal with them [Russia] to get them to withdraw from the territory that they have occupied."

Nato

Zelensky has conceded that Ukraine won't join Nato, which was one of the reasons Putin invaded Ukraine in the first place. Granting this concession, then, may de-escalate tensions, but Ukraine and Nato still have close ties, and Putin also wants Ukraine to recognise the independence of Donbas and Luhansk, which Zelensky isn't keen on to say the least.

Putin falls


Expert reveals why Putin's Twitter account only follows 22 people Getty

If Putin feels the bite of economic and cultural sanctions, and his people turn against him, some have hypothesised his regime could be toppled.

Professor Sir Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor of War Studies at King's College, London, says it is "now as likely that there will be regime change in Moscow as in Kyiv".

"Putin, who has isolated himself, in all senses of the word, risks now losing that aura of ruthless power that he has carefully cultivated," Prof Freedman writes.


The Independent has a proud history of campaigning for the rights of the most vulnerable, and we first ran our Refugees Welcome campaign during the war in Syria in 2015. Now, as we renew our campaign and launch this petition in the wake of the unfolding Ukrainian crisis, we are calling on the government to go further and faster to ensure help is delivered. To find out more about our Refugees Welcome campaign, click here. To sign the petition click here. If you would like to donate then please click here for our GoFundMe page.

Have your say in our news democracy. Click the upvote icon at the top of the page to help raise this article through the indy100 rankings.

Please log in or register to upvote this article
The Conversation (0)