As you can see, the numbers are pretty solid and for all the geekery we engage in, much of the time it boils down to this. Especially when 96% of the variance can be explained by simple leadership satisfaction levels. There are times when the headline numbers make no sense (ala 2015), looking under the bonnet at these kinds of supplementary questions csn at the very least, crystallise, and at most verify and make certain.
There isn't going to be some cliff edge. The Tories are on for about a 20 point election win and whilst there is plenty of time to play, I don't expect this to change, given the historic trend.
Forgive me for not demarcating dates of each set of Tory leads on the chart. Would have made life easier. I forgot. But look across to left of screen for cross-reference.
A decent counterpoint is that leader satisfaction improves when your party polls well.
However, that it remains a good ballpark indicator for a general election result should concern Labour.