Ten years ago I started applying its tools to the society I live in: the United States. What I discovered alarmed me.
So we’re off to a good start then.
It looks like you've got around three years to build that underground bunker in your back garden, because Turchin predicts that social instability and political violence will peak in the 2020s.
He also states that the 2016 US election 'confirms his forecast'.
His predictions are informed by trends such as income inequality, declining wellbeing, and growing political dysfunction. He says he also tracks the role of “Elite overproduction”.
This term is used to describe increasing inequality propping up the most wealthy, so the “one per cent” becomes the “two per cent, which increases competition between the elite and polarises political parties.
He says this is a big driver of social instability, and it looks like Trump might make it worse - although the jury is still out on whether we needed a mathematician to tell us that.