Why Cardi B's brief Super Bowl cameo caused chaos in betting markets

Grammy-winning rapper Cardi B's appearance at Bad Bunny's Super Bowl halftime show has ignited a dispute within the burgeoning prediction market industry, even prompting a complaint to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The ambiguity surrounding her exact role has left traders and platforms grappling with how to settle millions of pounds in wagers.

Prediction markets allow users to bet on future events, typically through yes-or-no "event contracts." Prices, ranging from £0 to £1, theoretically reflect the perceived probability of an outcome.

Over $47.3 million was staked on Kalshi's "Who will perform at the Big Game?" market, with Polymarket seeing over $10 million in volume. Cardi B was seen dancing alongside singers Karol G and Young Miko, and actors Jessica Alba and Pedro Pascal on a "starry front porch" during the spectacle. However, it remained unclear whether she actively sang during the segment, which also featured performances by Ricky Martin and Lady Gaga.

Citing "ambiguity over whether or not Cardi B’s attendance at the 2026 Super Bowl halftime show constituted a qualifying ‘performance’," Kalshi settled its market at the last trading price – $0.74 for 'No' holders and $0.26 for 'Yes' holders – before ultimately returning all funds to users. Polymarket, conversely, initially resolved its contract as a 'Yes' for Cardi B performing, though this decision has been disputed, with a final announcement expected on Wednesday. A 'Yes' holder has since filed a complaint with the CFTC, alleging Kalshi violated the Commodity Exchange Act in its resolution of the contract and seeking $3,700. A message was left Tuesday night seeking more information from the CFTC.

Karol G (2R) and Cardi B (R) perform onstage during the Apple Music Super Bowl Halftime ShowChris Graythen/Getty Images

The Super Bowl marked a significant season for prediction markets. Kalshi reported a daily record of over $1 billion in total trading volume on game day, a 2,700% increase from the previous year. The season-long total for all Super Bowl winner futures was £828.6 million, up more than 2,000% from last year. This surge in activity led to some deposit issues, with Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara posting on X on Monday that the "traffic spike was way bigger than our most optimistic forecasts." She confirmed the platform had reimbursed processing fees on affected deposits and added credits to users who experienced delays.

Robinhood Markets highlighted the strength of its prediction market offerings in its recent financial results. CEO Vlad Tenev expressed optimism, stating: "I think we are just at the beginning of a prediction market super cycle that could drive trillions in annual volume over time. This year is going to be a big year. Olympics are going on right now. World Cup coming in the summer."