Corbyn loses no confidence motion: The problem with the Labour party - in five charts

Louis Dor
Tuesday 28 June 2016 12:40
Picture: Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

Labour is facing a leadership crisis after Jeremy Corbyn's shadow cabinet was obliterated by a string of resignations. Many have cited his lacklustre campaigning on the EU referendum among their reasons.

The media has followed suit...

Corbyn faces a vote of no confidence among Labour MPs on Tuesday.

We'll know the results at 4pm, but early speculation has it that as many as 150 MPs will vote against him.

It's unsurprising, given the well-documented lack of support Corbyn has recieved among the Parliamentary Labour Party - he was only nominated by 36 MPs when he was elected party leader by members in 2015, compared to 41 for Liz Kendall, 59 for Yvette Cooper and 68 for Andy Burnham.

In addition, he has polled poorly at a national level. We have yet to receive any post-Brexit polling on leadership, but the last Ipsos-MORI survey for June showed him with lower satisfaction levels among the general public than David Cameron, Nigel Farage and Tim Farron.

Despite this, he has polled strongly with Labour members, something oft-cited by his team in defence of his leadership amid the current crisis.

A YouGov poll after losses in the local elections in May showed high levels of satisfaction with Corbyn at a membership level.

What we can learn from this is that the £3 membership price has dramatically skewed the Labour party member's demographic away from that of the rest of the country.

Current party party leadership is more concerned with telling itself it is on-course to win a victory in 2020 with 'straight-talking honest politics' than it is with connecting with the rest of the public.

If recent general election history has taught us anything it's that you don't win a first-past-the-post election from the periphery, which is where Labour's issue sits.

The party is full of members who will elect a leader who is simply unelectable among the wider public - demonstrated by how people think Corbyn is doing.

This chart sums up the problem with Labour over the past 9 months

Oh, and speaking of 9 months...

...we've no reason to believe that Corbyn's national unelectability, as demonstrated by his poor showing in the local elections, is going to change.

Update: Corbyn has lost the vote of no confidence 172-40.

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