Kamala Harris's big gamble 'could cost her the election', says data expert

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are tied in a new national poll, with the first presidential debate set to take place on Tuesday night (September 10).

With the race being so close, 56 days out until election day on November 5, the moves both candidates make in this race will be watched closely.

But for Harris, there is apparently one "big opportunity" she has missed that election data expert Nate Silver believes may cost her the election.

In his “Silver Bulletin” newsletter over the weekend, the FiveThirtyEight founder said that Harris "blew one big opportunity to tack to the center with her selection of Tim Walz rather than Josh Shapiro.”

His comment comes following a New York Times/Siena College poll where half (47 per cent) of likely voters considered Harris too liberal - something she's previously grappled with during her unsuccessful 2020 election campaign.

While Silver says Walz was "a decent enough pick on his own merits" he believes that the Democrat presidential nominee has "reverted to 2019 mode" by choosing the Governor of Minnesota.

Kamala Harris (left) and Donald Trump (right) will go head-to-head in the first presidential election debate on September 10

“[Harris] is a more talented politician than she showed in 2019, and it’s shame that her campaign that year was run by people who seemingly thought Elizabeth Warren was a right-winger,” he wrote.

“I think Walz was a decent enough pick on his own merits, but given an opportunity to offer a tangible signal of the direction her presidency was headed, [Harris] reverted to 2019 mode.”

Shapiro had been a frontrunner as Harris's potential running mate, as the Governor of Pennsylvania he is a leader in a crucial swing state that has 19 electoral votes which could've given Harris a major boost in this tight race.

Furthermore, speculation ran wild when Philadelphia's mayor released a video urging Americans to support Shapiro “for vice president".

Josh Shapiro had previously been considered a frontrunner for the roleSaul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

But Shapiro - who is Jewish - faced backlash from far-left Democrats over his stance on Israel. He has criticised both Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu and the campus protests that have taken place. There were also concerns over an op-ed he wrote in college where he said that peace would “never come” to the Middle East.

Some critics believed that this opposition to Shapiro was antisemitic, and despite this opposition Silver wrote: "That a tiny minority of progressives objected to Shapiro was an argument in Shapiro’s favor, if anything.”

Shapiro said last month that antisemitism played no role in his not becoming the Democratic Party’s vice presidential nominee. Speaking to reporters at the time, he said [via NBC]: “Antisemitism played absolutely no role in my dialogue with the vice president. Absolutely none. It is also true that antisemitism is present in our commonwealth, in our country and in some areas within our party, and we have to stand up and speak out against that.”

Elsewhere, Pennsylvania Sen. John Fetterman reportedly voiced concerns about Shapiro being the VP pick believing him to be too focused on his own personal ambitions, Politico reported at the time.

In the end, Harris is said to have picked Walz due to his non-divisive manner and good chemistry, according to CNN and Walz was also the one who started calling the Republicans "weird".

“I think Walz just emerged as that person who she grew to trust and admire,” said Bakari Sellers, who co-chaired Harris’ 2020 Democratic primary bid told AP.

Tim Walz is the one who began calling Trump and JD Vance 'weird'Jeff Swensen/Getty Images

But Silver reckons this decision has meant Harris is underperforming with a certain demographic of "white voters without college degrees, rural voters, and older voters" which are the kind of voters you see in abundance in Blue Wall states like Pennsylvania.

According to Silver's data model (as of Tuesday September 10) Trump has a 65 per cent chance of winning Pennsylvania and a 64.4 per cent chance of winning the election.

As the first presidential debate is set to take place today, Silver shared how the current polling will impact Harris's debate strategy.

“Debates are often judged relative to expectations as much as by the candidates’ actual execution, and if the race is perceived as a toss-up for Harris or even leaning Trump, her performance might be viewed in a more favorable light,” he added.

“And Harris will perhaps be more likely to avoid the counterproductive tendency toward risk aversion that she showed with the Walz pick. She should campaign like she’s two points behind — because if the Times poll is right, she is.”

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