Data expert makes prediction for Melania film - and it's not looking good

Ahead of the release of the Melania documentary, CNN’s data analyst Harry Enten has shared his prediction that the film will perform poorly on the opening weekend.

The film provides a behind-the-scenes look at the life of the First Lady, Melania Trump, in the 20 days leading up to her husband Donald Trump’s inauguration in January 2025.

The documentary will premiere this Thursday Kennedy Center in Washington, D.C., before its release in cinemas this Friday (January 30).

Ahead of the release, President Donald Trump has been praising his wife's film declaring it is "selling out fast", and he reportedly watched the documentary at a private screening on Saturday night at the White House, where Apple’s Tim Cook and Mike Tyson were among the guests in attendance.

The event took place just hours after the shooting of 37-year-old Alex Pretti by a federal agent in Minneapolis.

But CNN's data analyst Enten suggests otherwise, as he says Melania has a 63 per cent chance of getting a poor rating of below 20 per cent on film and TV film review aggregate site Rotten Tomatoes.

“That’s not good, Erin. That’s not good, being below 20 per cent,” Enten said, on Erin Burnett OutFront and shared that the documentary is projected to make $1 million to $5 million on opening weekend.

“Not so great," he added, and went on to compare the film to Michael Moore’s Fahrenheit 9/11, the highest-grossing opening weekend for a documentary in U.S. history, making $23.9 million in 2004. (That's $41 million today when considering inflation).

“Melania is not anywhere close,” Enten noted.

The opening weekend predicted numbers aren't great, considering $40 million Amazon paid to purchase the documentary’s rights and the marketing costs of $35 million.

"All of the advertising, all of that jazz to try and build up that audience, which right now doesn’t seem like they’re rushing to actually see it,” Enten said.

This latest prediction for Melania comes as social media users have been disproving Trump's "selling out fast" claim by posting screenshots of movie theatre booking pages apparently showing barely any seats reserved.

It is directed by the American Brett Ratner – his first film since he was accused by numerous women in 2017 of sexual assault. Ratner denied the allegations and no charges were brought against him.

Elsewhere from Indy100, Trump claims Melania's movie is 'selling out fast' but people literally aren't buying it, and Melania film trailer – an 'iconic' scene is getting attention.

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