Asteroid that's concerned NASA for years could hit moon sooner than we think

An asteroid currently being monitored by NASA has shown a small increase in its chances of colliding with the Moon in the next decade. The near-Earth object, known as ‘Asteroid 2024 YR4’, now carries a 4.3 per cent risk of impacting the Moon on 22 December 2032.

The updated estimate follows new data gathered in May using the James Webb Space Telescope. Initial observations suggest the asteroid measures between 174 and 220 feet (or 53 to 67 metres) in size.

When it was first discovered on 27 December 2024, scientists noted a “very small chance” that it could impact Earth in 2032. However, further analysis has since ruled out any significant risk to our planet in 2032 or beyond.

Massive 'city-killing' asteroid could hit the moon sooner than we think Pexels

NASA has confirmed there remains a “very small chance” of a lunar impact on 22 December 2032, though they emphasise it would not affect the Moon’s orbit.

"The way that the orbit improved made the position move away from the Earth, but it moved toward the Moon. So there's like almost a 4 percent chance it's going to hit the Moon,” Dr Andrew Rivkin, astronomer at Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, told IFL Science.

“That means there's a better than 96 percent chance it's going to miss the Moon, but if it did hit the Moon, it really would be pretty spectacular!"

The asteroid is not visible from Earth, as it’s currently “too far away to be observed with space-based or ground-based telescopes,” according to a statement from NASA.

However, it is reportedly predicted to approach once more in 2028, which should allow researchers to monitor it more closely.

“NASA plans to make further observations when the asteroid's orbit around the Sun brings it back close to Earth in 2028,” the space agency added.

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